2024 Presidential Forecast

Election Win Probabilities

Biden has an 31.17% chance of winning the election, Trump has an 68.23% chance of winning the election, and there is an 0.60% chance of a tie.

Win Probability Map

The closest states are Florida (5.42% Biden, 94.58% Trump), Nevada (10.10% Biden, 89.90% Trump), Georgia (14.44% Biden, 85.56% Trump), North Carolina (17.18% Biden, 82.82% Trump), Arizona (17.70% Biden, 82.30% Trump), Michigan (29.93% Biden, 70.07% Trump), Pennsylvania (32.90% Biden, 67.10% Trump), Wisconsin (47.20% Biden, 52.80% Trump), Nebraska CD-2 (60.68% Biden, 39.32% Trump), Minnesota (62.83% Biden, 37.17% Trump), New Hampshire (64.52% Biden, 35.48% Trump), Maine (67.15% Biden, 32.85% Trump), Virginia (70.74% Biden, 29.26% Trump), New Mexico (83.71% Biden, 16.29% Trump), Colorado (92.01% Biden, 7.99% Trump), Oregon (94.47% Biden, 5.53% Trump).

National Polling Averages

Biden is currently polling at 42.91%, while Trump is at 43.35%.